In fact, it’s fun to read this discussion posted on The island on an “economic table towards consensus”, presumably to help Sri Lankan politicians lift the country out of the abyss into which it has fallen. Could these writers be practicing a writing genre bordering on sham and underrated fun?
Do you realize that what is needed in the first instance is a court and guillotine installed in Galle Face Green, to execute criminals who have amassed personal fortunes through various scams and “jaavaram”? The scams could be at the August level of a prime minister and a central bank governor working in collusion, with a minister who did not know who paid the rent for his luxury apartment, or at the ignominious level of a secretary to the president who exchanged bags. of money in a dark parking lot, or in the shade of changing the price of sugar or nano-nitrogen to fill the desired pockets.
However, once the criminals are eliminated and their ill-gotten wealth nationalized and repatriated, could economists be called in for consensual advice?
Hema Senanayake, who thinks that a roundtable of economists will square the circle, may have heard Bernard Shaw’s comment that if you ask 10 economists to point North, they will point in 11 different directions and yet lose track! North!
Hema Senanayake says, perhaps with unspoken irony, that “In chemistry, there is no middle way, only the known truth prevails. So is physics. In short, all the subjects of the natural sciences exist scientific truths. Why not in economics? “The simple answer is that economics is NOT a science. According to Dr. Nalin de Silva, even science is a chronic Western lie: only revealed truth is” true. “
Senanayake may be secretly thinking about the speech von Hayek gave upon receiving the Nobel Prize in Economics, entitled “On the claim to knowledge.” https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1974/hayek/lecture/
Von Hayek says that most economic advice is simply a pretense of knowledge, when such knowledge does not exist. Regarding the analogy with the physical sciences, he says:
“Economic science marks a significant step in the process by which, in the opinion of the general public, economics has bestowed some of the dignity and prestige of the physical sciences. On the other hand, economists are now called upon to say how to free the world from the grave threat of accelerating inflation, which, it must be admitted, has been caused by policies that most economists recommended and even urged. governments to pursue. In fact, right now we have little reason to be proud: As a profession, we’ve made a mess of things.
It seems to me that this failure of economists to guide policy more successfully is closely related to their propensity to imitate as closely as possible the procedures of the brilliantly successful physical sciences, an attempt that in our field can lead to outright error. “
Senanayake takes his irony too far when he says, “So I would join Dr. Dayan Jayatilleke in calling for an economic roundtable and let’s start with economic axioms. Our people would be relieved of economic suffering in a few months ”.
In months, WOW! After all, we have heard of Euclid’s axioms, or the axioms established by Whitehead and Russell in their failed attempt to unify logic and mathematics. But what are these axioms of economics? The claim that such axioms exist has long since been dropped by von Hayek in his Nobel Prize speech.
So what about the Sri Lankan economy? Surely, if the old soldier hadn’t shot himself in the foot listening to people like Venerable Rathana, Dr. Padeniya or Dr. Jayasumana to cleanse the country of toxins, he would not have banned agrochemicals last April. It would have been less crisis.
AGRICULTURE: the main branch of the nation.
What we need now are not economic axioms, but quick-pay agriculture.
Ms Bandaranaike, having destroyed Dudley Senanayake’s earnings in agriculture, realized in 1971-72 that one possible resource was growing cassava, millet, etc., that is, crops that need very little agrochemicals. Cassava leaves contain a form of cyanide, and even caterpillars or livestock avoid it. However, if the leaves are crushed and left for an hour, the cyanide is released and an excellent protein-rich “Maellum” (cooked salad) is obtained.
The government has not only shot one foot (agriculture), but also the other foot (energy sector), and it cannot stand tall. It is in its four extremities; their only ability is to beg. But disaster capitalism is here. The main question for roundtable economists is, who should buy disaster: American, Chinese or Indian capitalists? But even if the economists come to an agreement, they cannot achieve much unless they can invite the likes of Goldman Sachs, Mukesh Ambani or Ma Huateng to the talks. That is the only valid axiom!
If the agricultural catastrophe can withstand for a year by turning to cassava and other alternative foods (while the upper classes eat their organic food and drink Evian water), at least part of the economy becomes viable. What about the other leg, the energy sector?
THE POWER SECTOR: the left leg of the nation
: Local people have already rediscovered firewood. This is bioenergy. Fast-growing plants that require little to no fertilizer and are resistant to pests are ideal. While I exploit fast growing plants like Giricidia, my choice for a high yielding plant for the energy sector is Castor, “Erandu” in swabhasha. The oil can be used in a diesel engine without further treatment! It grows rapidly in the poorest soils, untouched by even a hungry goat or mosquito. The entire plant, seeds, and husks can be burned to produce high-pressure steam and electrical energy.
Ipil Ipil, used in coconut plantations as it is a nitrogen fixing plant, grows up to 20-30 feet in a couple of years and can also be used for firewood or power generation.
Ifham Nizam’s report in The island (Jan 1, 2022) says “hydropower capacity has dropped to 70 percent from nearly 95 percent during recent rains.” When the rains stop, water levels in reservoirs drop as water flows through gates, turbines, and irrigation canals. But what is not appreciated is that a third of this water (which could generate 95% during the rains) is lost by EVAPORATION that occurs day and night, especially from the water areas covered by Salvinia and other aquatic plants. .
One could imagine that aquatic plants cover the water and prevent evaporation. Far from there. They act like wicks and bring water through their roots underwater and into the air more efficiently. So, REMOVE the aquatic plants and put floating covers on the windswept part of the water. You immediately get 1/3 MORE electricity by spreading the effect of the rains.
Putting floats on water surfaces to partially cover them is a locally available and rapidly deployable technology. However, these floats can carry solar panels. So you can get a good extra amount of solar energy, on top of the extra 1/3 of electricity you get from reducing evaporation. This solar electricity can be used during the day; a corresponding amount of water can be saved by shutting down some turbines.
The deployment of floating covers to prevent evaporation (with or without solar panels) cleans aquatic surfaces. Salvinia, “Japan Jabara” (water hyacinth), etc., suck up the dissolved oxygen in the water and suffocate aquatic organisms and create aquatic bodies that are harmful to health. Aquatic weeds thrive on excess phosphates transported to reservoirs from agricultural areas. Therefore, cleaning these aquatic surfaces and partially covering them with solar panels WILL IMPROVE the aquatic ecosystem beyond measure.
In short, turning to fast-growing staple diets based on cassava, millet, and yams to withstand the immediate impact of the collapse of the conventional agricultural sector, can stabilize a stretch of the economy. The other branch, that is, the energy sector, may have to turn to firewood, Gliricidia, Castor and other sources of bioenergy, while taking measures to avoid the loss of hydroelectric energy due to the evaporation of the water.
However, an efficient organizational structure is needed to achieve these goals. The Ministry of Agriculture has had five secretaries in a short time. It is like a demoralized army languishing under a succession of madmen who order fire even at their own ranks.
CHANDRE
DHARMAWARDANA
[email protected]